How to Know When a Stock Is About to Rise on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX)

The Silent Clues Smart Investors Watch Before Prices Move

A Short Story You’ll Relate To

Aisha saw a stock trading at ₦12.

No noise.
No hype.
No WhatsApp “signals”.

But something strange was happening quietly.

The company’s CEO had just bought millions of shares.
Two board directors followed.
Then the share price moved from ₦12 to ₦18.
A few months later ₦25.

Most people only noticed after the rise.

Smart investors noticed before.

Let’s break it down.

1. Insider Buying: The Loudest Quiet Signal

If you remember only one thing, remember this:

When directors and CEOs buy their own company’s shares with their money, pay attention.

This is called insider buying.

Why Insider Buying Matters

• Directors know the business better than anyone

• They know upcoming results, contracts, or expansion

• They won’t buy if trouble is ahead

📌 When insiders buy:
✔ It shows confidence
✔ It signals future growth
✔ It often happens before price rises

🚨 One insider is good.
🚨 Multiple insiders buying together is very strong.

2. Improving Financial Results (Before the Market Notices)

Before a stock rises, the numbers usually improve quietly.

Look for:

• Revenue increasing

• Profit turning positive

• Losses reducing

• Better cash flow

📌 Prices follow earnings, not vibes.

A company that was struggling but starts improving often attracts smart money first.

3.  Unusual Trading Volume

Price movement alone is not enough.

Watch volume.

If:

• Volume suddenly increases

• But the price hasn’t moved much yet

That’s accumulation.

It means:

Big investors are buying quietly without pushing price too fast.

This usually comes before a breakout.

4. Consistent Dividend Payments

Dividend-paying companies attract serious investors.

If a company:

• Pays dividends consistently

• Increases dividend amount

• Maintains payout even in tough times

It shows:
✔ Strong cash flow
✔ Good management
✔ Long-term stability

Dividend stocks often rise slowly but steadily.

5. Expansion News & Business Growth

Stocks move because businesses grow.

Watch for:

• New factories

• Expansion into new markets

• New products

• Strategic partnerships

• Government contracts

📌 Growth news = future earnings = rising stock price.

6. Industry Tailwinds

Sometimes, it’s not the company — it’s the industry.

If:

• Banks benefit from higher interest rates

• Cement companies benefit from infrastructure spending

• Telecoms benefit from data growth

Stocks in those sectors often rise together.

📌 Follow the money flow.

7. Institutional Investors Entering

When:

• Pension funds

• Asset managers

• Mutual funds

Start buying a stock; it creates demand.

These investors:
✔ Buy in large amounts
✔ Hold long-term
✔ Push prices upward over time

Their buying doesn’t scream — it builds.

8. Technical Breakouts (But Only After Fundamentals)

Charts don’t predict the future alone — they confirm it.

Watch for:

• Break above the resistance

• Higher highs & higher lows

• Long consolidation followed by a breakout

📌 Fundamentals start the move.
📌 Technicals confirm it.

Common Mistakes Beginners Make

❌ Buying after WhatsApp hype
❌ Chasing price after it has risen
❌ Ignoring company fundamentals
❌ Falling in love with cheap stocks

Cheap does not mean valuable.

Beginner Checklist: Signs a Stock Is About to Rise

✔ Insider buying
✔ Improving earnings
✔ Rising volume
✔ Strong dividends
✔ Sector growth
✔ Institutional interest
✔ Technical breakout

You don’t need all three — 3–4 together is powerful.

Final Thought

Stocks don’t rise randomly.

They rise because:

• Insiders believe

• Earnings improve

• Big money enters

• Businesses grow

By the time social media screams,
The opportunity is already gone.

Learn to watch quietly 
That’s how real money is made on NGX.